Pakistan has seen devastating floods, droughts, and cyclones, killing and displacing people, destroying livelihoods, and causing infrastructural damages in last years. Pakistan’s economy is under threat from climate change, with Sindh province suffering the brunt of the impact.
The country’s GDP growth rate has been dropping since 2018, and it is expected to fall significantly in 2022 as a result of the severe floods. Sindh, which contributes up to 30% of Pakistan’s GDP, suffered a significant drop in its contribution in 2022.
Pakistan’s Finance Division published a report on floods in 2022 sharing the damage is estimated at US$14.9 billion, the loss to the GDP at US$15.2 billion, and the total needs of rehabilitation at US$16.3 billion. The sectors that suffered the most damage is housing at US$5.6 billion; agriculture, food, livestock, and fisheries at US$3.7 billion; and transport and communications at US$3.3 billion. The transport and communications sector have the highest reconstruction and recovery needs at US$5.0billion, followed by agriculture, food, livestock, and fisheries at US$4.0 billion, and housing at US$2.8 billion. The provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan account for approximately 50 percent and 15 percent of recovery an reconstruction needs, respectively. Pakistan’s Finance Division Report on Floods 2022.
This visual explores the economic consequences of climate change on Pakistan’s GDP, with a special focus on Sindh, which was severely affected by the 2022 floods. Sindh only contributes more than 50% of the overall consequences of 2022 floods i.e. 2375.8 billion rupees. Baluchistan is 2nd most effected province in terms of damages that are 425.8 billion rupees, are more than the three times of flood damages in Punjab in that year.
Fluctuation in temperature impacts every aspect of human life. The first threat of climate change creates is the shortage of freshwater, and as a result the survival on Earth will be endangered. This will also affect food production because cultivation will get affected first hand. This is exactly happening in Pakistan, and the situation will get worse in the future (BBC, 2020).
Temperature Increase in Pakistan (2018-2022)
From previous years, a change usually an increase in temperature is seen worldwide. Pakistan is also facing the same since many years back. A temperature rise wave can be seen in the shown visual starting from 2018 with 0.77 and ending on 2022 with 9 points increase from previous year i.e. 2021
Rising temperatures and extreme weather shifts have accelerated glacial melting, increasing the risk of floods in the region. Climate change creates a fear that it will increase in severity in the coming decades. According to world bank data on climate change, analyst forecast that climate related events such as weather change and air pollution may cause Pakistan’s GDP to shrink by 18-20% by 2050. These climate change impacts i.e. weather shift, air pollution, heatwaves, floods, rising temperature and melting glaciers causing a huge economic cost. This cost is also effecting the Pakistan’s GDP in terms of its growth rate.
Pakistan’s CO2 Emission (2018-2022)
Increase in CO2 emissions are directly related to the country’s rising temperatures. As CO2 emissions rise, more heat is trapped in the atmosphere which contributes to an increase in global temperature. Pakistan has already experienced considerable temperature increases over the last three decades, with the average temperature rising by 0.7°C between 1980 and 2020. This warming trend is predicted to continue with temperature rise by another 2 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 if emissions continue at the same rate.
The rising temperature and CO2 emissions in Pakistan have serious consequences for the country’s climate and economy. Pakistan’s Agricultural Industry is already suffering a lot because of climate change impact, with altering weather patterns and an increased frequency of irregular rainy weathers impacting crop production.
CO2 emissions have a direct connection with the temperature rise in that country. As CO2 emissions increase, they trap more heat in the atmosphere, leading to a rise in global temperature. Pakistan has already seen a significant increase in temperatures over the past few decades, with the average temperature rise by 0.7°C between 1980 and 2020. This warming trend of temperature rise is expected to rise by another 2 to 3°C by 2050 if emissions continue to rise at their current rate.
Temperature rise and CO2 emissions in Pakistan have severe implications for the country’s climate and economy. Climate change is already affecting Pakistan’s agricultural sector, with changing weather patterns and extreme weather events impacting crop yields and food security. Melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, which supply water to Pakistan’s rivers, is expected to reduce water availability in the future, which may cause water scarcity issues in coming years. The economic costs of climate change in Pakistan are projected to be 5 6% of the country’s GDP by 2050.
Historically, Sindh’s contribution to Pakistan’s GDP has been between 30% and 32.7%. Its share in the service sector has ranged from 21% to 27.8% and in the agriculture sector from 21.4% to 27.7% share.
Sindh’s contributions to Pakistan’s GDP, service sector, and agriculture sector demonstrate its importance as an economic engine for the country. The province’s economic significance is clear, and its continued growth and development are essential for Pakistan’s economic prosperity, stability, and long-term growth.
Sindh is at forefront of Climate Impact both in terms of economic and humanitarian losses. The provincial climatic issues are shrinking Pakistan’s economy. Hence, urgent actions are needed to protect climate change as we see the 2022 floods having devastating effects on Pakistan’s overall economy. Sindh, which was severely affected by the floods, saw a significant decline in its GDP contribution. It is essential for Pakistan to prioritize climate change mitigation and adaptation of safety measures and strategies to minimize the economic consequences of climate change.
- Adopt environment friendly methods of production.
- Move to solar or wind energy in suitable areas for electricity production.
- Lowering the CO2 emissions into the air.
- Make green energy moves and take green housing effect seriously.
- Give awareness about climate change and its possible consequences in future.
- Promote sustainable measures.
- Make necessary updates into current infrastructure.
- Reducing PM2.5 and PM10 in air by adaptation of new policies which are environment friendly.
- Applying Reduce, Recycle and Reuse policy.
